Creature from the deep

Originally published in Himal Southasian, August '09

With Indo-Pak relations still reeling from the November Mumbai terrorist attacks, Pakistan has thrown a nervous fit over India’s launch of Southasia’s first nuclear-powered submarine on 26 July. The Pakistan foreign ministry immediately condemned it as a grave threat to regional peace and declared that ‘Pakistan will take appropriate steps to safeguard its security without entering an arms race.’ The strategic balance of Southasia – precarious at the best of times – has been decisively tipped.

Jitters have rebounded throughout Pakistan’s defense community. Captain Abid Majeed Butt of the Pakistan Navy said the submarine would ‘jeopardise the security paradigm of the entire Indian Ocean region,’ and suggested that a nuclear arms race was not unforeseeable. For this is India’s loudest display of military muscle since it tested its first ‘peaceful nuclear explosive’ in 1974. Capable of launching missiles at targets 700km away, the 6,000 tonne Arihant carries up to 100 soldiers and can stay underwater for long periods to evade detection – when India’s antiquated diesel-powered submarines need to resurface constantly to recharge their batteries.

India has made no official statements on the size of its nuclear arsenal; estimates indicate between 40 and 95 weapons – a kit that includes short and middle range ballistic missiles, nuclear-armed aircraft and surface ships. The Arihant adds a ‘third dimension’ to India’s defense capability; previously it could only launch ballistic missiles from the land and the air. India is only the sixth country to have built its own nuclear-powered submarine, after America, Russia, Britain, France, and China. Its military dominance in Southasia is now beyond dispute. India refused to sign the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, rejecting it as discriminatory; and its stubborn independence on defence matters – the last true survivor of the non-alignment ethos – has led to eager diplomatic courtship from America, much to the consternation of Pakistan.

On the Sunday launch, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh waved off criticisms that India had hawkish designs on anyone, and stressed the need for India to keep abreast of worldwide technological advancements – in all spheres, from agriculture to expensive weaponry. There is a clear shift evident in India’s defense priorities from land to sea, giving lie to the notion that the north east and the Kashmir Line of Control are the be and all and end all. And, despite Pakistan’s vexations, India considers the greatest potential threat to come from China, whose naval presence in the region has grown manifold in the last few years – and is busy dismantling India hegemony.