Creature from the deep

Originally published in Himal Southasian, August '09

With Indo-Pak relations still reeling from the November Mumbai terrorist attacks, Pakistan has thrown a nervous fit over India’s launch of Southasia’s first nuclear-powered submarine on 26 July. The Pakistan foreign ministry immediately condemned it as a grave threat to regional peace and declared that ‘Pakistan will take appropriate steps to safeguard its security without entering an arms race.’ The strategic balance of Southasia – precarious at the best of times – has been decisively tipped.

Jitters have rebounded throughout Pakistan’s defense community. Captain Abid Majeed Butt of the Pakistan Navy said the submarine would ‘jeopardise the security paradigm of the entire Indian Ocean region,’ and suggested that a nuclear arms race was not unforeseeable. For this is India’s loudest display of military muscle since it tested its first ‘peaceful nuclear explosive’ in 1974. Capable of launching missiles at targets 700km away, the 6,000 tonne Arihant carries up to 100 soldiers and can stay underwater for long periods to evade detection – when India’s antiquated diesel-powered submarines need to resurface constantly to recharge their batteries.

India has made no official statements on the size of its nuclear arsenal; estimates indicate between 40 and 95 weapons – a kit that includes short and middle range ballistic missiles, nuclear-armed aircraft and surface ships. The Arihant adds a ‘third dimension’ to India’s defense capability; previously it could only launch ballistic missiles from the land and the air. India is only the sixth country to have built its own nuclear-powered submarine, after America, Russia, Britain, France, and China. Its military dominance in Southasia is now beyond dispute. India refused to sign the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, rejecting it as discriminatory; and its stubborn independence on defence matters – the last true survivor of the non-alignment ethos – has led to eager diplomatic courtship from America, much to the consternation of Pakistan.

On the Sunday launch, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh waved off criticisms that India had hawkish designs on anyone, and stressed the need for India to keep abreast of worldwide technological advancements – in all spheres, from agriculture to expensive weaponry. There is a clear shift evident in India’s defense priorities from land to sea, giving lie to the notion that the north east and the Kashmir Line of Control are the be and all and end all. And, despite Pakistan’s vexations, India considers the greatest potential threat to come from China, whose naval presence in the region has grown manifold in the last few years – and is busy dismantling India hegemony.

Charm offensive

Originally published in Himal Southasian, August '09

The shadowy profile kept by the ISI is a mixed blessing for the Pakistani intelligence network. Manoeuvring and plotting behind closed doors and maximum security gates, they have long acted with total impunity. But, as a consequence, the ISI are casually suspected of lurking behind any foul play within (and outside) Pakistan, from terrorist training to election rigging to the abduction and murder of political opponents. To put it mildly, they have a public image problem.

In response, they are undergoing a PR-savvy makeover, and throwing upon their unsignposted doors to Western journalists and other habitual critics. In weekly receptions within their wood-panelled offices, liveried servants treat the guests to refreshments, while suited officials introduce themselves fully before showing a series of power-point presentations, where ‘confidential’ details of the Taliban insurgency and the hunt for al-Qaeda are revealed in neat bullet points. All to show the world that they are an honest, tea-drinking bunch who wouldn’t dream of nurturing a Kashmiri suicide bomber.

An ISI official – one of a few now authorised to speak to the press – summed up their new policy of ‘opening up’ to the world: ‘In the past, irrespective of whether we did something, we were getting blamed for it. Now we want to reach out and get our point of view across’. Influencing the local press, through bribery or intimidation, is par for the course; but this is the first time they have courted the international media. Whether these congenial tea receptions will convince is another matter entirely. For the last thirty years their imprint has been unmistakable on the dirtier fringes of government policy: most dubiously, funding and training separatist militants in India-controlled Kashmir, and backing the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan – both strategies that have come back to bite the Pakistani state.

Within Pakistan they are viewed with a mixture of awe and fear; they are ambiguously referred to as the ‘white angels’, on account of the white shalwar kameez they wear while ‘visible’. The omnipresent ears of the military, their tentacles spread through a huge phone and email monitoring capability and an entrenched network of informers. Under Musharraf’s presidency, they abducted hundreds of political opponents, allegedly torturing many of them. Acting under no laws but their own, they are commonly said to be a ‘state within a state’.

But their new strategy has won some small yet notable victories. In late July, the New York Times ran a front page highlighting the difficulties the US surge in Afghanistan has presented Pakistan – sourced entirely from one of those ISI briefings. An ISI official was jubilant about this propaganda coup: ‘That was the first time [a Western journalist] carried both sides of the argument. I think we are getting there.’ But this is merely a PR campaign; genuine transparency is, of course, not the stock in trade of a spy agency. And a ‘friendlier’ ISI suggests a weaker ISI; the loss of the arrogant swagger of the past points to the increasing impotency of the Pakistani state – not something to be welcomed by even the most ardent ISI critic.

A song and dance man

Originally published in Himal Southasian, August '09

Former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf may have distinguished himself as a ruthless hawk with little regard to legal process, but beneath the military bluster sleeps an untapped musical flair – or so a new YouTube video would suggest; a new viral sensation where the general performs a duet with Sufi balladeer Ustad Hamid Ali Khan. A loud volley of comments have been exchanged over Pakistani websites, from former subjects shocked – and perhaps delighted – that Musharraf had a zeal for pursuits other than ousting democratically elected governments, abducting political opponents and violating the Kashmir Line of Control. Although how this will impact on his prospective trial – where he potentially faces the death penalty for high treason – remains to be seen.

While in London he performed in a series of concerts, and the video in question sees him and the Sufi maestro stirring up a gathering of Pakistani exiles – lost among them being Musharraf’s former prime minister, Shaukat Aziz. The emotive crowd joined in the chorus of the popular Urdu ghazal Laage re tou re laage najar sayyain laage. Something of a PR coup, this; Musharraf appears every bit a man of the people, leading the chorus while Khan shouts “wah wah” in encouragement. Continuing on a roll, the general stormed another London gig where, after complaining that the performing drummer was not keeping time, he marched onstage, commandeered the tabla set, and proceeded to keep rather good time by all accounts.

Semi-congratulatory comments have abounded on the web, though more in the line of music criticism than overt political judgment. Adil Najam, who originally posted the clip, wrote, "I really like his taste in music. Pervez Musharraf may or may not be the one leader who did the most good (or bad) for Pakistan. But he may well be the one who sings the best." Meanwhile, Musharraf sits uncertainly in the UK under Pakistani government protection; he awaits possible extradition to Pakistan on the insistence of Nawaz Sharif, leader of the Pakistan Muslim League and the former premier ousted by Musharraf. Although the prospective trial formally concerns the arrest and detention of seven Supreme court justices after Musharraf imposed emergency rule in November 2007, for which he could face three years in jail, Sharif is pushing for treason charges – carrying the death penalty – as a warning to military chiefs against staging coups in the future.

In all this, the YouTube video sounds a discordant note. Pakistan has been badly served by its political class, but odd flashes of colour do lighten the gloom from time to time. Next up: Zardari’s hip-hop duet with Manmohan Singh.